What the study found
A research team led by Virginia Iglesias of the University of Colorado Boulder released findings in Nature Communications indicating that the number of buildings vulnerable to wildfire in the United States could increase threefold by the middle of the century. The analysis estimates an average of 300,000 structures could be destroyed or damaged by fire between now and 2060 if current trends continue.
Key numbers and projections
- The model predicts between 133,200 and 449,100 buildings could burn under a business‑as‑usual scenario, with the midpoint at roughly 300,000.
- For the decade 2051‑2060, wildfire risk to structures is projected to be up to 3.2 times higher than the risk observed from 2011‑2020.
- Historical reconstruction covered the period 1945‑2023, using data on burned area, development patterns and fire impacts.
- Regional analysis shows the West, especially California, will remain the primary hotspot, but new risk zones are emerging in central and eastern states.
- In the West, 30 % of census tracts with the highest projected fire risk also overlap with areas of socioeconomic hardship.
How the projections were built
The researchers first recreated past wildfire exposure by combining historical fire maps, housing density records and climate variables. This reconstruction was then fed into a forward‑looking model that incorporated projected weather trends, climate change scenarios and anticipated development patterns to estimate future structural loss.
Context and recent events
The study was prompted in part by the Palisades and Eaton fires that swept through Los Angeles County in January 2025. Those blazes destroyed about 16,000 buildings—four times the typical annual nationwide loss from wildfires—highlighting the growing vulnerability of built environments.
Underlying drivers of rising risk
According to the authors, three interrelated forces are accelerating structural exposure:
- Climate change: Warmer temperatures and longer fire seasons have already made wildfires larger, more frequent and more widespread, as shown in a 2022 study by the same team.
- Development patterns: Expansion of housing and commercial structures into fire‑prone landscapes concentrates risk in newly built areas.
- Social and structural vulnerability: Communities with limited resources are less able to implement protective measures, amplifying potential losses.
While climate mitigation can curb fire intensity, the authors stress that development decisions largely dictate where risk clusters, and that both factors together drive the steep upward trajectory.
Potential mitigation and adaptation strategies
Iglesias emphasizes that the projected outcomes are not inevitable. At the household level, adopting fire‑resistant building materials, creating defensible space around structures, and using ember‑blocking designs can improve survival odds. However, no single measure eliminates risk.
Effective risk reduction will require coordinated action across neighborhoods, local governments and broader policy frameworks. Investment in community‑wide fire adaptation—such as vegetation management, resilient infrastructure planning and targeted assistance to disadvantaged areas—is highlighted as essential.
What the findings mean for policymakers and the public
The study’s authors hope the quantitative outlook will spur more aggressive climate policies and land‑use planning reforms. With annual firefighting expenditures already exceeding $3 billion and economic losses far outpacing suppression budgets, the financial stakes are high.
Without decisive steps to curb greenhouse‑gas emissions and to redesign development in fire‑prone zones, the United States is likely to experience more catastrophic events similar to the 2025 Los Angeles fires. The longer adaptation measures are delayed, the more difficult and costly it will become to protect lives, property and critical infrastructure.